Spotting potential double risers

I often see FPL players, particularly those with active wildcards, asking “who is going to rise 0.2 in price this week?”

No one can say with absolute certainty that someone will be a “double riser” because an injury in training or a midweek match can bring transfer momentum to a halt very quickly. That being said, the potential candidates are not difficult to spot.

0.2 graphicMost obviously, a great individual performance such as a player scoring a brace or a hat-trick is likely to lead to a flood of transfers in. Callum Wilson, with his Gameweek 3 hat-trick, is an obvious example here. Early in the season the effect of a player having a big scoring gameweek is magnified because it launches the player up to, or close to, the top of the Total score list that is the default view on the FPL Transfers page. The effect of a player being high up on that front page should never be underestimated.

Secondly, consistent returns can attract a lot of FPL managers to draft a player in. The effect can be strong where a normally well-regarded player is returning to form, or where doubts about a player had previously been common place. Riyad Mahrez this season is a good example of the latter. He was a player who had shown potential the previous season without firmly nailing down a starting spot and the summer arrival of “The Tinkerman” Claudio Ranieri as Leicester City’s manager hardly inspired confidence the situation would change quickly. Mahrez scored twice in the opening gameweek and picked up a 0.1 rise. The following week he notched another and rose 0.2 in one gameweek. In Gameweek 3 Mahrez struck again and he became the first triple riser of the season.

On the flipside, there are factors that can count against a player achieving a double rise and perception is one of them. Cheikhou Kouyaté, for example, had a great start to the season, notching two goals and an assist in the first three gameweeks. Despite scoring 4 in 31 last season, which is reasonable for someone in his price bracket, and now lying seventh for shots inside the box for midfielders this season, Kouyaté’s potential to attract suitors is in part hampered by the perceptions which come with being a deep-lying midfielder.

Another factor is the number of other good options that emerge in the same week. If seven players bring in double-digit points in a week, the chances are only three or four will attract a large number of buyers because most managers will only use their one or two free transfers. Some might take a points hit to bring in more players, but the number who choose to do so will be much smaller than those who rely on free transfers alone. In Gameweek 4, eight players scored 11 points or more, but only three have had enough net transfers in so far to merit a double rise – and none of those players has risen twice. Why haven’t they been double risers? That’s likely down to wildcards.

GW5 likely double risers

Managers using their wildcard to bring in all the high-scoring options will actually decrease the chance of a player moving up in price because those wildcard transfers are believed to count for nothing. Excluding Pedro because he has been price protect for most of his time in the game, 12 players have had more than 300,000 net transfers in so far this season. In most cases that should be enough for five price rises (i.e. they should have risen in price twice in at least one of the weeks), but only four players have had a double rise so far. Meanwhile, 690,000 wildcards were played in gameweeks 2, 3 and 4 combined.

It is easy to spot the three players who would have racked up enough transfers for a double rise this week if wildcards weren’t a factor – Wilson, André Ayew and Bafétimbi Gomis. Their Transfers in (round) numbers are well above the other players. Visit the Transfer page after the games each week and you will soon spot the handful of players leaping ahead of the pack. (If you visit on a Saturday, don’t forget to look again on Sunday, particularly if someone scored well that day.)

As for these three, once the market picks up close to the gameweek deadline, they stand a great chance of rising again this week – only injury or wildcards can likely stop them.

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