Shots on Target ticker Gameweek 10

Here are my Shots on Target and Shots on Target Conceded tickers for Gameweek 10.

Shots on Target ticker GW10-15

Shots on Target Conceded ticker GW10-15

Last week the tickers over-estimated the number of Shots on Target actually hit in Gameweek 9 by an average of 0.81.

The range was nine Shots on Target, with Manchester City exceeding its already high value by 4.50 Shots on Target against a weakened Bournemouth defence. At the other extreme, Sunderland might have shown the first potential signs of tightening up their defence under new manager Sam Allardyce, limiting West Brom to one Shot on Target, 4.53 below the ticker value.


5 thoughts on “Shots on Target ticker Gameweek 10

    • Ruth_NZ says:

      An additional comment for Doos as I can’t post on FFS (I hope Diva won’t mind).

      I think the way you have been treated recently is poor. I didn’t like the scoutcast comments (just listened to it). And I don’t like the derision comments I have sometimes been seeing on the forum recently either, they are undeserved. You are an original poster with your own independent analysis and that should be prized, whether it comes out right or wrong in any instance.

      I know it will all be water off a duck’s back for you but I wanted to say this anyhow. 🙂

      Liked by 1 person

  1. Ruth_NZ says:

    So Dave, just to clarify… The first ticker is attacking SoTs adjusted for the defensive strength of the opponent, right? So it is expected SoTs? And the 2nd is SoT’s conceded adjusted for the attacking strength of the opponent so is expected SoTs to be conceded? Just so I can be clear what I am looking at.

    If the above is right, do you adjust historic SoTs for opponents also? For instance 8 SoTs in a game against United are worth more as an indicator of attacking prowess than 8 SoTs in a game against, say, Newcastle, right?

    I’d like to have a chat about what the tickers say but wanted to make sure I understand them first.


    • They show a team’s offensive strength in Shots on Targets adjusted for opposition team defensive strength, with both stats modified to account for strength of schedule. The second one shows how many shots a team is expected to conceded (it’s what a team’s opponent is expected to get in SoT). The article about Fixture strength last week went into more details about how I created them. This is an experiment – which is why I am reporting the outcome of last week – so they should be treated carefully.

      I’ve been very busy so sorry for no new posts in the last two days. Hopefully I’ll be in a position to write one tomorrow.


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