The hat-trick hero in Gameweek 10 of the 2015-16 Premier League season was Harry Kane. The Tottenham Hotspur forward bagged 17 points for the 16.6 per cent of Fantasy Premier League managers who have him in their team.
Goals were always likely to start flowing at some point from the England international, who came second in the race for the Golden Boot last season despite not being Tottenham’s starting striker for the first 10 games. Kane’s underlying statistics show why.
Only two strikers have fired more shots in the Premier League than Kane this season. Only in Spurs’ Gameweek 2 clash against Stoke has the PFA Young Player of the Year failed to fire at least three attempts in a match. Furthermore, a large portion of those shots have been hit from inside the penalty area, which is another positive sign.
Where Kane was falling down this season was getting those shots on target. He only managed four shots on target in the first six games. I noted after the Gameweek 6 match against Crystal Palace that Kane seemed to snatching at shots. A player who is struggling to hit shots on target will struggle to score goals.
But notice how Kane has started hitting the target more frequently since Gameweek 7. I suspect he was low on confidence and forcing his play, but is now playing with more freedom.
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The fixture list mostly looks promising for Spurs (AVL, ars, WHM, CHE, wba, NEW). Some FPL managers might worry that Kane’s hat-trick was against an injury-ravaged Bournemouth side, but we know from his goal against Manchester City in Gameweek 7 this season, plus braces against Chelsea and Arsenal last year, that he can score against anyone.
A bigger issue is whether there is room for Kane (9.2m) in one of the three FPL forward spots. Jamie Vardy (7.2m) is in amazing form, having scored nine goals in the last seven games. Graziano Pellè (8.4m) hasn’t scored for two weeks, but FPL managers will be in no rush to remove a player with five goals and five assists this season, plus five good fixtures in the next six games (BOU, sun, STO, mci, AVL, cpl).
The third highest scoring FPL forward is Odion Ighalo, who offers great value even at his current price of 5.4m. Just behind Ighalo is Lukaku. At 8.4m, the Everton forward is cheaper than Kane and he doesn’t face another team from last season’s top eight in 2015. And then there is Wildfried Bony (8.3m), who scored two last week on his first start filling in for the injured Sergio Agüero in the normally highly productive Manchester City forward line.
Until Agüero is back, FPL managers can afford to field two 8m+ forwards, Vardy and a strong midfield. But once the Argentinian returns, they could face a tricky restructuring job if the money is spread too broadly. Kane looks a good buy, but FPL managers will have to consider carefully whether he is better than their other options.
FPL Diva 
Like many others, you seem to take Vardy as an automatic pick. I don’t and I don’t have any wish to bring him in whatsoever.
Lecester’s fixtures are awful. The next 3 are OK on paper though WBA and Watford are good defensive teams. After that they are about as bad as you could get between now and Xmas.
I wouldn’t be removing Vardy just yet if he was in my team. But I sure as hell wouldn’t be wasting a FT on bringing him in. I have Mahrez who can stay 3 weeks more and then he’ll be gone too.
If Vardy is this season’s Kane then I’ll be proved wrong. But I don’t think he is, and more to the point I don’t see Leicester as more than a mid-table team who happened to have a good start to the season.
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As I said in the post, FPL managers need to consider carefully the composition of their forward line.
However, Vardy is in 45 per cent of all FPL teams, which means most active managers will have him in their side. Given his current scoring record I doubt many managers are planning to shift him. If my post suggested an inevitability to picking Vardy that is because I felt I was reflecting the reality for most FPL managers right now.
Vardy isn’t perfect. His Shots on Target to Goals conversion rate is too high. However, even if he regresses to a more normal rate for that measure, he would remain a good option if he keeps up the current rate at which he hits the target.
The fixtures are on the turn for Leicester, but in the last four weeks Vardy has scored twice against Arsenal and twice against Southampton.
The Vardy ride may slow down at some point, but while it’s rushing along I’m happy to hitch a lift. The key will be working out if and when to jump off.
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Nice write up Diva. Two of Kane’s goals were literally gifts from the goal keeper as he dropped the ball right in front of him. Still, his confidence is on the rise and thats probably all he needed. I’m in no hurray to bring him in however (352) and knowing that Aguero will be returning soon I don’t want to risk investing a whole lot of funds into another asset. Something to keep in mind.
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“Knowing Aguero will be returning soon…”
And you know that how? I suspect you are confusing the player’s optimism with actuality.
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Not just the player but the coach as well. All the news we have been getting is that he should be ready to return after the international break.
Do you have evidence that suggest otherwise or are you just ‘hoping’ he’s out for longer?
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Sorry, Ryan, “all the news we have been getting” is no news at all apart from the one fact that Aguero has a Grade II Hamstring Strain.
Physio Works quotes 4-8 weeks recovery for that injury depending on what sport and at what level (amateur, professional, elite).
Physio Room suggests the following exercise regime:
Week 3-4: Intermittent jogging and walking can begin, 5 minutes at first, then build up in 5 minute increments. Once the patient can do 15 minutes they should build up to to half pace running. Squats can begin – repetitions x 20, 3 times daily. Hamstring curls using a resistance weight machine can also begin. Everything should be pain-free.
Week 4+: Backward running can begin. If pain-free, the patient progresses to full pace forward running. The patient continues stretching and strengthening exercises. The patient begins sports specific training activities.
It should be visible from those details that 4 weeks is extremely optimistic in this case, not surprising seeing it came from the player. Pellegrini’s comments a few days ago were that he’s out for the next month, not that he’ll be back in a month – he couldn’t possibly know when Aguero will be back, he won’t even be running yet. 4 weeks is a minimum, not an end date. And if you follow these kinds of injury you’ll know that the return date for a footballer is almost always longer than originally anticipated.
Aguero was out for 5 weeks with a Grade I Strain last season (December 6th to January 10th) and he was only fit enough to come on as a sub when he returned. A Grade II Strain is worse and has a longer recovery period. In addition, Aguero has a history of hamstring injuries and City will know that rushing him back would be dangerous. I think 6-10 weeks is more realistic for Aguero and would be surprised to see him back much before GW16 at the very earliest and possibly not much before Xmas.
If this proves to be the case, I personally will be in no rush to bring him back into my FPL squad. GW18 & 19 are 2 days apart, a high rotation risk for a player just coming back from injury. Aguero also tends to take a couple of games to get up to speed after a layoff- he went 5 games without a goal after his injury last season. Because of all of those factors I doubt I’ll want him back before GW20 unless he makes an unexpectedly fast recovery.
The reason I posted this was that I saw your comments on FFS about keeping money in the bank for Aguero’s return. I don’t believe you need to because I think it’s further away than you expect. As for what I’m ‘hoping’ for – why would it matter to me either way? When Aguero is fit and firing again he’ll come back into my squad, whenever that may be. But that doesn’t mean I’ll be falling over myself to bring him back as soon as he hits the pitch. I’ll probably give him a game or two first anyway for the reasons given above.
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I’ll just address the point about keeping money in the bank. I don’t believe I have mentioned that this is the only option or even a wise option. You could invest it in the attack and then use 2FT’s to shift funds around.
I currently have funds in the bank partly because I don’t feel the need to spend it yet and I’m not keen to simply ‘splash out’ and get overpriced assets because I can. I’ll keep one eye on the horizon in case Aguero does return for the Liverpool clash and then I can look to bring him in the week after.
I certainly wouldn’t want to find myself hamstrung by having funds spread around the defence for example, making it difficult to reinvest them in attack for when Aguero returns.
As for his return date, its at the very least totally subjective at this point. However he was injured early in October (the 8th I think), the Liverpool game is on the 21st of November, thats 6 weeks after the injury happened. I think he’ll be returning a little sooner than you expect.
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Actually I am attempting to be objective but of course we won’t know for sure until we know for sure.
Believe it or not I was trying to be of assistance. Not to criticise your decisions. I don’t want to manage your team.
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