Shots on Target ticker Gameweek 12

Here are my Shots on Target tickers for Gameweek 12.

Shots on Target ticker GW12 2015-16

Shots on Target conceded ticker GW12 2015-16

Last week the ticker over-estimated the number of Shots on Target actually hit in Gameweek 11 by an average of 0.18.

There were 11 teams who were within two Shots on Target of their ticker value. The overall range was 9.5 Shots on Target. After two weeks of being on the receiving end of far more Shots on Target than expected, Bournemouth’s defence tightened up and limited Southampton to just two in the South Coast derby, 4.88 less than the ticker value. Meanwhile Sunderland upset talk of a fixture swing for Everton’s defenders by hammering nine Shots on Target at Tim Howard, 4.62 more than the ticker value. Despite landing an extra Shot on Target than their rivals, the attacking show did not do the Wearsiders much good – they lost 6-2.

The Everton-Sunderland result is a reminder that strange things can happen in a small time-frame like one match. If you’re going to consult the ticker, I think at this stage I would pay more attention to the colours to get a sense of the strength of the upcoming fixtures than I would to the actual numbers therein.

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9 thoughts on “Shots on Target ticker Gameweek 12

    • It’s a function of Tottenham’s shooting prowess (average 6.8 SoT away) and Arsenal not being the tightest in terms of allowing opportunities (average 5 SoTC at home). This is modified by Arsenal tending to give up slighty more SoT at home than their rivals manage elsewhere on the travels and Tottenham tending to achieve more SoT away from White Hart Lane than their rivals normally give up.

      That being said, Shots on Target still need to be converted into goals so the fact Arsenal have kept three clean sheets at home either speaks to the quality of Petr Cech or hints that Arsenal force their opponents to shoot from distance or a combination of the two.

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  1. I like this Shots on target table, as a guide at least. I’m starting to favour selecting my attacking players based on their shots stats, even over fixutres. I decided to go Kane over Lukaku from your previous SOT post. I hope the predictions are close to what the table suggests for GW 12 🙂

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  2. Ruth_NZ says:

    I was looking at Arsenal-Spurs too, I have a vested interest with Kane. 😉

    You are predicting Arsenal 4.56 SoTs and Spurs 7.51, right? So a Spurs away win? Wow.

    I think you can discount the GKs, Cech is only marginally better than Lloris,

    Spurs are available at 19/4 and you’ll probably be able to get 5/1. That’s huge.

    FFFix are projecting 1.89 goals for Arsenal and 0.99 for Spurs, so a 2-1 Arsenal win.

    I just don’t know what to think now. Should I captain Kane, Diva?

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    • The Arsenal clean sheets at home stat may stop me captaining Kane, but if I was a betting man I might be tempted to take a small flutter on Spurs to win at those odds. (I accept no responsibility for losses anyone else incurs as a result of making such a bet – this ticker is unproven.)

      Shots on Target still need to be converted into goals and anything can happen in a game: Sunderland beat Everton 9-8 in SoT, but lost 6-2 in goals.

      However, I would not be in the least bit surprised if Spurs make this a much closer contest than many people are predicting.

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  3. Hi there, recently been looking at your site and loving it , great stuff! 🙂 Looking at the Sot fixture ticker along with the recent article you posted about Vardy needing to keep up his Sot because his conversion rate will most likely drop, does the ticker not suggest that Leicester are not in fact expected to keep up a Sot meaning we should hold on the two Leicester boys for a while and give them a chance during tougher fixtures?

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    • I’ll look at Mahrez in a little more depth within the next couple of weeks, but I probably won’t consider dropping the Leicester duo before I see signs of a drop off in performance.

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