Manuel Lanzini

One player receiving some attention as a potential replacement for Dimitri Payet is his West Ham United team mate Manuel Lanzini. The Argentinian only played 15 minutes in the first three Gameweeks of this Premier League season, but he has been playing much more frequently since and has appeared for the full 90 minutes three times in the last five games.

When Lanzini has received significant game time, he has generally made use of it to unleash a few shots, as the following chart shows.

Manuel Lanzini GW1-12 2015-16

Lanzini’s chances created are turned into assists at a standard rate. His shots on target conversion rate is 60 per cent, which is too high to sustain in the long run. A potential problem appears to be that he tends to shoot from range. The former River Plate player has taken 21 shots, but only hit six of them from inside the box.

However, it’s worth remembering that he only costs 5.3m and he is the third highest scoring midfield player in the sub-5.5m price bracket. At that price most Fantasy Premier League managers would not expect a player to deliver the goods regularly, but would like to know he might do something if they have to play him.

A comparison with other players on how often they create chances, assists, goals, shots on target, shots in the box and shots might be useful here to put Lanzini’s number into context. Here is how Lanzini compares to Payet, Willian (6.9m), who I looked at yesterday, and Marc Albrighton (4.9m), who has score more  FPL points than any midfielder priced at or under 5.5m.

Manuel Lanzini v other options Actions per 90 minutes

Lanzini’s relative lack of creativity stands out, particularly against his team mate, who is one of the most creative players in the league. But he unleashes at least one shot more every 180 minutes on average than the other three players. If his shots in the box numbers were higher he could make a promising investment, but at the current rate I think he’s more of a gamble.

If a manager does gamble now then at 5.3m it wouldn’t be the end of the world if it fails. However, that is a slightly awkward price, being a touch too high for a fifth midfielder who normally stays on the bench. He would be nicely priced though if he shows enough form to make him a fourth midfielder.

I think Lanzini is one to monitor given his next three fixtures are against defensively capable sides (tot, WBA, mun). A good time to reassess may be a month from now when the Hammers’ fixture list opens up (STO, swa, avl).

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6 thoughts on “Manuel Lanzini

  1. Hi FPL Diva, been reading your blog for a while, commenting for the first time.

    Love the graphs, very easy on the eye.

    With Lanzini, I think West Ham’s Attack would definitely get a bit worse now with Payet injured. He used to be everywhere. I think Payet makes Lanzini a bit less appealing. Even though I know Lanzini gets more of his shots from outside the box where Payet doesn’t need to pass a magical ball at his feet, I just think, in general, West Ham will slow down a bit.

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  2. I thought about Lanzini, looked at his stats and can’t see what all the fuss is about. However, as Doos says maybe a change of position with Payet out could benefit his output. But when you consider the fix maybe wait and see is the best policy. Bolasie is the one to get now at that price and fix..

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  3. Ruth_NZ says:

    I think Lanzini is good value at 5.3 but I also believe the reason many managers are looking at him is because of the “Aguero Plan”.

    Here is Aguero’s record returning from an injury layoff of over 1 month:

    19/8/13 to 23/9/12 – he then scored 2 goals in 5 PL games
    24/2/13 to 30/3/13 – he then scored 2 goals in 5 PL games
    14/12/13 to 15/1/14 – he then scored 2 goals in 2 PL games before getting injured again
    29/1/14 to 2/3/14 – he then scored 2 goals in 5 PL games
    6/12/14 to 10/1/14 – he then scored 2 goals in 5 PL games

    Nothing at all frightening there. It suggests that he is mortal and (like most players) requires a few games to get up to speed after a spell being on the sidelines and unable to train fully. It also suggests that if he is over-exerted too quickly he may get injured again (especially common with a hamstring injury). We can expect to see him coming off the bench to start with and being protected over the first weeks on gametime.

    The hot topic on this subject FFS is egregiously misleading because it looks at how long it took Aguero to score a goal and includes very short layoffs for knocks and bruises. This has been a Grade II hamstring tear involving 3 weeks when he couldn’t even run.

    An Aguero goal is worth 4 points, same as a Lukaku goal or a Kane goal. You don’t need Aguero’s points, they aren’t more valuable than anyone else’s. The only thing that can hurt a non-Aguero owner is a big haul when widely captained. Looking at the above figures and the fixtures, there’s probably not a game to worry much about before GW18 (Sunderland).

    For me, I wouldn’t captain him in preference to Kane or Lukaku or Sanchez before that anyway. Which means that’s the earliest I’d consider bringing him back. Which means I don’t need to buy a cheap midfielder just to release cash right now. Which brings me back to Lanzini…

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    • moneyball666 says:

      Couldn’t disagree with the points highlighted. Managers need to look beyond Aguero. There are other strikers at less the price who will deliver points during the same period.

      I’m comfortable going without Aguero until he becomes essential. Which at the moment he isn’t.

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