Troy Deeney

Troy Deeney, a popular pre-season Fantasy Premier League forward pick, has been overshadowed so far this season by his team mate Odion Ighalo. By Gameweek 9, Ighalo had scored five times while his team mate had failed to find the net. The Nigerian added a couple more in Gameweek 11 and he has risen from his pre-season price of 5.0m to 5.7m today.

Deeney, meanwhile, saw his price drop from 5.5m to 5.1m by Gameweek 9. However, since then he has scored in Gameweeks 10, 12 and 13. So could we have a bargain on our hands that is finally coming into form?

Troy Deeney GW1-13 2015-16

Given my earlier research on the penalty taker’s advantage, I have separated Deeney’s penalty kick statistics from his regular numbers and, as you can see, spot kicks do boost his appeal when they arrive.

When I looked at the Watford forwards in September, the data appeared to show that Deeney was hitting a good number of shots, but struggling for accuracy. Even with penalties excluded, Deeney seems to have improved his accuracy a little, but he’s still in the second tier for landing his shots on target and that has a knock on effect on his goal output.

Embed from Getty Images

A big positive though is that no Premier League forward has played more minutes than Deeney this season so there are no worries about his game time if he’s fit. Another is that Watford have three great fixtures (avl, NOR, sun)  coming up before the schedule turns against them (LIV, che, TOT, MCI, sot).

There are plenty of forward players vying for a space in FPL teams, so I doubt many managers are looking at Deeney, but he does tick the boxes if anyone wants a dead cheap penalty-taking regular starter. Given the slight uptick in his shooting accuracy recently, coupled with the great fixtures, he could make an interesting short-term punt, but I would rather structure my team to run with a cheap fifth midfielder than a cheap third forward at present.


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