Shots on target season ticker: Gameweek 24

Here are my shots on target and shots on target conceded tickers for Gameweek 24.

Shots on Target ticker GW24-29 2015-16

Shots on Target Conceded ticker GW24-29 2015-16

These have been worked up on the basis that there will be no double gameweek in the next six gameweeks. The six gameweek average is a five gameweek average for the four teams with blank fixtures in Gameweek 27.

In Gameweek 23 the ticker overestimated the average number of shots on target per team by 0.33. There were 13 teams within two shots on target of the ticker value, including seven within one shot on target. The range was 11.28.

There were contrasting stories for the north London sides. Tottenham Hotspur notched an impressive eleven attempts on target versus Crystal Palace, which was 6.19 more than the ticker value. Arsenal, meanwhile, recorded just one shot on Chelsea’s goal, which was 5.09 below the ticker value.

West Bromwich Albion failed to land a single shot on target against Aston Villa when the ticker value had been 4.55. Liverpool, on the other hand, hit seven shots on target (3.24 more than the ticker value) in their 4-5 thriller at Norwich City. The Canaries’ five shots on target was 2.29 above the ticker value.

Double Gameweek planning: Part four

Now the bulk of the FA Cup fourth round games have been played, the upcoming blank and Double Gameweek (DGW) picture is beginning to become a little clearer.

I have updated my chart from parts one, two and three of this series to show the current state of play.

Double Gameweek planning part 4

The chart shows the Capital One Cup final match up (lilac), the blank Gameweek 27 fixtures (purple), potential DGW options for the teams affected by the Capital One Cup final (yellow), potential blank Premier League gameweeks for teams because of the FA Cup (dark grey), the only guaranteed Gameweek 30 and Gameweek 35 fixtures so far (green) and the four Premier League fixtures  in Gameweek 30 and Gameweek 35 (light grey) where the team in the larger tile is waiting to discover if the team beneath them in the smaller tile progresses in the FA Cup.

The FA Cup fourth round games have settled several matters. Manchester City’s progress to the fifth round means there can be no DGW26 for the Citizens and Newcastle United. Liverpool’s draw with West Ham United in the fourth round of the FA Cup means a replay will be needed that kills off the possibility of a DGW25 Merseyside derby.

If Everton beat Carlisle United tomorrow, the possibility of the Toffees playing their postponed Gameweek 27 Premier League match with Liverpool in Gameweek 26 will also disappear and the teams won’t meet until after the blank.



Stoke City’s FA Cup fourth round loss to Crystal Palace has ensured the Potters and Southampton will have a Premier League fixture in Gameweek 30, joining Leicester City and Newcastle as the only teams guaranteed to play that week.

Southampton also join Leicester as being the only two teams currently guaranteed to play every gameweek this season (unless freak conditions, like heavy snow, cause games to be postponed). That means the Saints and the Foxes will not have a DGW, but it also means players from those teams could be a valuable source of cover during the blanks.

Double Gameweek planning: Part three

Liverpool and Manchester City have reached the final of the Capital One Cup and presented us with the first blank gameweek of the season for four Premier League teams. Manchester City’s trip to Newcastle United and Liverpool’s game against Everton will be removed from the Gameweek 27 schedule because they clash with the final.

For Fantasy Premier League managers this means their Liverpool, Everton, Newcastle and Manchester City will not play a game in Gameweek 27. Managers with more than three outfield players and one goalkeeper from those teams will need to reduce their exposure to those assets by Gameweek 27 if they want to field 11 men that week.



However, the postponement of those fixtures means they will have to be rearranged to another Premier League gameweek, creating a Double Gameweek (DGW). This is a great time to field players from those four teams as they will have two opportunities to score FPL points for their managers. At the time of writing, we don’t know when the DGWs will be scheduled.

I have updated the chart from part one and part two of this series to reflect the new certainty about which teams will have a blank in Gameweek 27.

Double Gameweek planning part 3

The chart shows the Capital One Cup semi-finals and final match ups (purple), the blank Gameweek 27 fixtures (black), potential DGW options for the teams affected by the Capital One Cup final (yellow), potential blank Premier League gameweeks for teams because of the FA Cup (dark grey), the only guaranteed Gameweek 30 fixture so far (green) and four Gameweek 30 Premier League fixtures (light grey) where the team in the larger tile is waiting to discover if the team beneath them in the smaller tile progresses in the FA Cup.

As you can see, there are four potential options for the DGW created by the Capital One Cup final.

We won’t know until the weekend whether the Gameweek 25 option is needed for an FA Cup fourth round replay for the two Merseyside teams and the Citizens (Newcastle are already out of the FA Cup). For Gameweek 26 to be an option, the teams involved would need to exit the FA Cup before the fifth round.

One of the DGW scenarios after the Gameweek 27 blank could be a strong possibility, but those dates could be needed for league matches postponed by FA Cup games if Manchester City, Everton and Liverpool progress to the quarter-finals or beyond.



I suggest FPL managers hold off making any transfers this week until the FA Cup games have been played this weekend. As well as potentially bringing greater clarity about the DGW caused by the Capital One Cup, we may learn more about which teams might have fixtures in Gameweek 30. Furthermore, as we saw with the unfortunate Kevin De Bruyne in today’s semi-final, injuries can strike key players in cup games.

Double Gameweek planning: Part two

Part of the trick to navigating double gameweek (DGW) season for Fantasy Premier League managers is fielding as many DGW players as possible while still having 11 players in the blank weeks that generate DGWs.

For example, if the Capital One Cup final were to be between Liverpool and Manchester City there would be four teams without a Premier League fixture in Gameweek 27 – Liverpool, Manchester City, and their respective opponents Everton and Newcastle United. If those games are rearranged to create a DGW in Gameweek 25 (one of four possible weeks), managers with more than six DGW players (or seven if one is a goalkeeper) will be unable to remove enough blanking players in time with free transfers to field 11 players two gameweeks later unless a points hit is taken or a wildcard is used.

Gameweek 24 is a pivotal time for squad management and not a gameweek for FPL managers to be burning their free transfer(s) early. Before the Gameweek 24 Premier League matches, we will discover who has made it through to the Capital One Cup final and which teams will be in the fifth round of the FA Cup. Not only could the players involved in those games be injured, but the ties could affect the shape of the upcoming fixture schedule.

I looked at the potential impact of the Capital One Cup final in terms of DGWs and fixture blanks in Double Gameweek planning: Part one earlier this month. Now I’ve updated my fixture chart to include the potential impact of the FA Cup on Gameweek 30.

Double Gameweek planning part 2

The chart shows the Capital One Cup semi-finals and potential final match ups (purple), potential blank Premier League gameweeks for teams (dark grey), potential DGW options for the teams that could be in the Capital One Cup final (yellow), the only guaranteed Gameweek 30 fixture so far (green) and four Gameweek 30 Premier League fixtures (light grey) where the team in the larger tile is waiting to discover if the team beneath them in the smaller tile progresses in the FA Cup.

What is instantly noticeable from the chart is the potential for the Gameweek 30 fixture list to be decimated if the Premier League sides win their fourth and fifth round FA Cup matches. Only two teams are currently guaranteed to play Premier League matches in Gameweek 30 – Leicester City and Newcastle. Meanwhile, Sunderland, Swansea City, Norwich City and Southampton are out of the FA Cup, but would only have Premier League games if Everton, Bournemouth, Manchester City and Stoke City depart the cup in the fourth or fifth rounds.

Six Premier League teams play each other in the fourth round of the FA Cup, but none of those matches guarantees a Premier League match in Gameweek 30. For example, if Aston Villa beat Manchester City in the FA Cup, the Citizens would have a game against Norwich in the league. However, if Villa lose, Tottenham Hotspur would also have to be knocked out before the quarter finals for the scheduled Gameweek 30 Premier League tie to go ahead.

One outcome that does appear settled is that any match displaced by the Capital One Cup final won’t be rearranged for the FA Cup quarter final weekend (Gameweek 30). Everton’s scheduled Premier League Gameweek 30 fixture with Sunderland would go ahead if the Toffees go out of the FA Cup before the quarter finals as the Black Cats are already out of the FA Cup. If Manchester City and Stoke City go out of the cup in the fourth or fifth round, they are also scheduled to meet opponents in the Premier League who are already out of the FA Cup. Liverpool, if they are knocked out of the FA Cup before the quarter finals, could have Gameweek 30 free for a rearranged Gameweek 27 match if Chelsea reach the quarter finals, but that won’t work because Everton, the Reds’ opponents in a rearranged match, would not be available as they will have either a cup or league game that week.

As many as 11 Premier League teams could go through to the FA Cup fifth round and, depending on the draw, up to eight could make it to the FA Cup quarter finals. If that were to happen, it could put a big dent in the number of Premier League fixtures played in Gameweek 30. So FPL managers need to be alert to having enough available players for the potential blanks as well as the DGWs. An all-Merseyside Capital One Cup final could generate a DGW for Liverpool and Everton, but could also see players from both teams potentially unavailable in Gameweeks 27 and 30.

If this is confusing, it illustrates exactly why now is the time to hold off making transfers and wait for a somewhat clearer picture to emerge after the cup ties are played.

Shots on target form ticker: Gameweek 23

Here are my shots on target and shots on target conceded form tickers for Gameweek 23.

Shots on Target form ticker GW23-28 2015-16

Shots on Target Conceded form ticker GW23-28 2015-16

The form tickers, which only use data from the last eight games, end with the 6GW Δ column. This shows the difference between the six-gameweek average (6GW ave.) on the form ticker and the season ticker.

The shots on target form ticker sees a big uptick in the attacking prospects for West Ham United, and mild improvement for Newcastle United and Aston Villa. The impact of injuries on the Crystal Palace attack is showing through and the outlook is worse for Norwich City too.

Leicester City’s recent defensive improvement is clearly showing through in the shots on target conceded form ticker, while the defensive prospects look better for the Hammers and the Magpies than they do in the season ticker. However, for Manchester City the outlook is worse than in the season ticker.

Shots on target season ticker: Gameweek 23

Here are my shots on target and shots on target conceded season tickers for Gameweek 23.

Shots on Target ticker GW23-28 2015-16

Shots on Target Conceded ticker GW23-28 2015-16

In Gameweek 22 the ticker underestimated the average number of shots on target per team by just 0.01. There were 12 teams within two shots on target of the ticker value, including eight within one shot on target. The range was 8.11.

Newcastle United had another strong attacking week, hitting 10 shots on target against West Ham United – 5.42 more than the ticker value. Stoke City also had a good week, firing six shots on target against Arsenal, which was 3.05 more than the ticker value. In return Arsenal could only muster three shots on target, 2.43 below the ticker.

Although Manchester City put four past Crystal Palace they did it with just four shots on target, which was 2.69 below the ticker value.

Finally, a reminder that we don’t know who will have a blank in Gameweek 27 as a result of the Capital One Cup Final, nor where any postponed games will be moved to.

Wayne Rooney

Wayne Rooney notched his fourth goal in three Premier League matches as Manchester United beat Liverpool 1-0 in Gameweek 22. In that period he has scored double the number of league goals he had recorded in the first half of the season.

In the nine seasons of the current Fantasy Premier League era, Rooney has scored between 11 and 14 goals in six of them. With his goals in 2016, he now on course to make it seven in ten if he can steer clear of injury and suspension. But could he go on to an even better total if he can sustain this sudden uptick in scoring?

Wayne Rooney GW1-22 2015-16

Before I dissect the chart, please note the FPL game credits Rooney with an assist against Tottenham Hotspur in Gameweek 1 that is not shown here.

An interesting detail in the chart is the number of shots, shots in the box and shots on target Rooney recorded against Swansea City in Gameweek 20. His numbers in that game are an exception for this season, rather than the norm.

Excluding the Gameweek 21 penalty because of the higher conversion rate for spot kicks, Rooney has been a little fortunate in the past couple of gameweeks to score two goals from two shots on target and two shots in the box. However, over the season, his goals to shots on target and assists to chances created ratios pretty much match the league average. The only metric which strays from the norm is the proportion of shots he hits inside the penalty box, which is below what we might expect for many Premier League forwards but about normal for Rooney.



The England international has converted between 36 and 44 per cent of his shots on target each season over the last four years, so he could potentially drive this season’s conversion rate a little higher. However, in terms of the number of shots and shots on target he has hit this season, Rooney is in the third tier among Premier League forwards with seven players ahead of him for shots on target and eight players beating him for shots.

As a premium forward, who still costs 9.9m despite being in 900,000 fewer teams than he was at the start of the season, most FPL managers will want more output than Rooney has offered over the course of this season. His short term form is good, but too good to sustain at this level for long. I suspect he is likely to end up with a seventh season scoring about a dozen goals unless he starts to produce more performances like the Swansea game.