Everything but the goal: GW2

This is going to be a little experiment. I’m going to pick a Fantasy Premier League player each week who has some good form in their underlying stats, but has been missing the end product.

Normally I like using lots of data, but this is going to be about form and will therefore use a precariously small sample, sometimes as little as one week. That’s certainly the case this week, where I have just one gameweek of data with which to work.

There were a few players I considered, including Southampton’s Dusan Tadic, who created six chances against Watford and hit four shots, two of which were on target. But my choice this week is Swansea City’s Fernando Llorente.

Against Burnley in Gameweek 1, Llorente fired six shots, including five from inside the box, and hit the target with four of them. It was a strong competitive debut for the Spaniard that was just missing a goal.

However, goals provide FPL points and that is why the striker priced at 6.5m has not received the same attention as someone like Álvaro Negredo, who began the season at the same price but now costs 0.1m more despite registering just one shot in his game.

I’m interested to see what value, if any, there is in jumping early on players when they show promising signs in their underlying statistics. So each week I will score the player from the previous week on whether they found their objective (goal, assist, clean sheet etc.) the following week or whether they were missing again. The objective for Llorente this week is to score. At the end of the the season I will tally up the results and see whether this exercise gave me anything more than an opportunity to use the same 1990s pop music reference 37 times.

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