Transfer market guide updated for 2017-18

I’ve updated my start-of-season transfer market guide for the 2017-18 season. It’s intentionally designed to be a simple guide to explain the basics to newcomers so experienced FPL managers may recognize that some aspects are more complex than the guide explanation.

The guide can be found on the transfers page on this site (click the hamburger icon to open page menu) or via this link.


Harry Kane blanks again

Before the season started there was a lot of talk about how Harry Kane had never scored a Premier League goal in August. There were good reasons to believe this season might be different. Unlike his first two Premier League seasons, Kane is now a starting striker and unlike the last two Premier League seasons he was coming into August off a proper pre-season break.

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Yet, with two games gone this August and just one Premier League match left to play before September rolls around, Harry Kane has so far failed to find the net in the last full month of summer. It’s certainly not for want of trying. I was able to watch part of Tottenham Hotspur’s game against Chelsea and there were moments where Kane played like a man possessed, determined to break his August duck.

Indeed, a look at his stats from the first two games tells a similar story. In his first match, against newly promoted Newcastle United, he unleashed six shots, including five in the area and one on target. Against Chelsea, last season’s Premier League champions, he performed even better with eight shots, six of which were in the area, and three of which tested the goalkeeper.

Harry Kane - actions per 90 minutes to GW2, 2017-18

Harry Kane – actions per 90 minutes to GW2, 2017-18

The chart compares Kane’s output to previous seasons, with penalty kicks excluded from the calculation of actions per minute. It shows that Kane has actually been shooting more frequently this year and doing so inside the box more regularly too. His Shots on Target output is similar to previous years and it is only the goals column where he has failed to register so far.

The sample size for this season is tiny – just two games – so there is more scope for variance in the results. During the season we may see that the shots and shots in box frequency decline at one end of the chart while the goal numbers increase at the other end. However, it’s also not completely out of the realm of possibility that these shooting numbers are the first tentative indications of a step up in output for Harry Kane – if that is the case Premier League defences should be getting very nervous.

More games will help give us a clearer picture. Up next for Spurs is Burnley at Wembley. The Clarets were the eighth best team in the league for goals conceded at home last year, but on the road they were the joint seventh worst. This could be a good opportunity for Kane to finally break his August goal drought.

Manchester United attackers

Manchester United have raced out of the blocks in the 2017-18 Premier League season, logging two wins in two games and scoring eight goals without reply.

Such success has seen Fantasy Premier League managers flocking to United’s assets. Romelu Lukaku started the season with the weight of expectation behind him and it has only grown after three goals in the first two games. The Belgian has already had one price rise and his ownership is now over 54 per cent. However, since the start of the season, even more managers have been buying Henrikh Mkhitaryan, whose four assists have propelled him to second in the FPL midfielder standings. The first two also helped him to a price rise a few days before the Gameweek 2 deadline.

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Following suit was Paul Pogba, formerly the world’s most expensive player, who shot to the top of the midfielder rankings and an instant price rise with a goal and two assists against Swansea City in Gameweek 2. Like Pogba, Anthony Martial has also found the net twice this season, but his appearances in the first two games have come as a substitute and that isn’t an attractive feature for most FPL managers.

Given the clean sheets accompanying Manchester United’s wins have made goalkeeper David de Gea, or the defence in front of him, an attractive addition to many FPL teams, there’s not much space left for the Red Devils’ assets. Therefore, the question for a lot of managers is who to pair with Lukaku in attack. I took a quick look at the early data on actions per 90 minutes and the results only serve to cloud the picture.

Manchester United attackers - actions per 90 minutes

Manchester United attackers – actions per 90 minutes

The sample size is tiny, so we should not put too much stock into this analysis. The results exclude Nemanja Matic because of his defensive posture and Martial because of his limited game time so far.

The first thing to note is that Mkhitaryan has some underlying numbers to back up his emerging role as the creative influence at United this season. Not only has he assisted half of their goals, but he is creating chances roughly twice as often as any of the other attackers. While he has been unleashing a few shots, they’ve mostly been from outside the area so it is no surprise to see him struggling to hit the target so far.

Lukaku’s shot profile is generally positive, with his proportion of shots hitting the target looking very sustainable, particularly given many of them are being hit inside the penalty area. That’s the good news. The bad news is he won’t sustain a 100 per cent Shots on Target conversion rate for long.

Pogba’s shooting profile is a little flat, which doesn’t bode well for sustaining his present rate of return if this pattern continues in future games. However, the French international tended to be a long range shooter in the Premier League last season, so it’s beneficial to his prospects this year that a greater proportion of his shots have been fired from inside the penalty area so far.

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The interesting thing from this small sample is the performance of Marcus Rashford. The young England international has been shooting more frequently than Lukaku and doing so from inside the box nearly as often. All that is missing is the end product. He’s unlikely to be out of the goals for long this season if he can sustain these kind of performances. Priced at just 7.5m – 4.1m less than Lukaku – Rashford is certainly one to keep in mind.